The worst of the national economic decline is likely to occur this quarter and job losses are expected to continue through next year, said Bill Watkins, executive director of the University of California, Santa Barbara Economic Forecast Project, in a bleak outlook he delivered March 18.

He said California will be affected more seriously by the recession than the rest of the nation and that the country is in the worst economic downturn since the 1930s, according to published reports.

Recovery might begin in 2010, he said, but he warned it may not happen if the economy — or any major industry — takes another unexpected turn.

Watkins also noted that California’s stalled government, ballooning budget deficits and sullen middle class will delay growth. All those factors may contribute to a rise in crime as well, he said.

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